The loss of the white and youth population has contributed most to the country's slowdown, new Brookings census data shows (2024)

earlieranalyzerof Census Bureau estimates make it clear that the country's population growth has fallen to an all-time low: just 0.1% growth between July 2020 and July 2021. During this peak year of the COVID-19 pandemic, deaths rose sharply, births fell, and immigration reached its lowest level in decades. At the same time, population movements within the United States led tosharp declinesin many of the largest urban areas, especially in these areas'biggest cities.

Now newly releasedCensus Bureau estimatesallow us to examine these shifts across specific racial-ethnic and age groups. Unlike the 2020 census data, these estimates allow analyzes of annual population changes.¹

This report focuses on annual changes from July 2016 to July 2017 through July 2020 to July 2021. This period includes three years before the pandemic, one year of partial exposure to the pandemic (2019 to 2020), and one year of full exposure to the pandemic (2020 to 2020). 2021)). This allows for an assessment of race-ethnicity and age shifts before and during the pandemic.

This is also an important period because if aprevious reportshows that the country's white population began declining in 2016.²This initial loss of white population occurred before the pandemic and is related to the aging of the white population, which has led to fewer births and more deaths – losses thatis expected to continue. And as shown below, the pandemic has exacerbated this white population loss.

The research into age shifts shows that there is a loss of young people under the age of 18 and of young people in the best working age (18 to 59 years). Furthermore, when we look at age and race, it becomes clear that non-white Americans, especially Latino or Hispanic Americans, make up a larger share of the population at all ages.

This report also discusses previous analyzes of notable population declines in major urban and metropolitan areas. It shows that most of these declines are due to the loss of white populations, both from the national decline in the white population and from the movement of the white population to smaller areas.

While these trends are exaggerated in the first year of the pandemic, it is clear that the country is facing a long-term transition toward greater diversity and aging, both nationally and in large parts of the country.

The loss of the white population has contributed most to the slowdown in the pandemic year

The country's population grew by just 392,665 during the period of the primary pandemic, from July 2020 to July 2021 – down from more than 1 million in each of the previous three years and more than 2 million in 2016-2017. However, when looking at these trends for major racial-ethnic groups, it was the increased loss among the white population (to -878,693) that accounted for mostvanthe country's growth is declining.

Increased losses among the country's youth and workforce

The aging of the country's population is not a new phenomenon. The transition of the baby boom generation to the older age category has accelerated the category's progress since 2010. This generational addition will continue for most of the next decade, shrinking the share of the country's core workforce. This aging population has also led to slower growth in the youth population, as women in their childbearing years make up a smaller share of the overall population (especially among white Americans).

So it is not surprising that even before the pandemic there was an annual loss among both young people (under 18 years) and working age (18 to 59 years), as shown in Figure 1. But in the period 2020- 2021, the magnitude of these losses increased. , especially for young people, in light of the decline in births and the slowdown in the generally younger immigrant population. And although they grew much more than others, the 60 and older age group still showed a significant decline in growth.

While all racial-ethnic groups contributed to these pandemic years, increased losses among white youth and lower gains among seniors contributed strongly to the national pattern. Particularly in 2020-2021, fewer white births and fewer immigrants (as well as the continued influx of baby boomers at older ages) were most responsible for the loss of the country's youth and workforce.

A more diverse nation at all ages

The new census estimates make two facts clear: 1) diversity is greater for the country's younger age groups than for older age groups; and 2) the nation is becoming more diverse at all ages.

Both points can be seen in Figure 6, which compares diversity measures by age for 2010 and 2021 (Download table C). The left graph shows the share of the population of each age group that identifies as white and not with any other racial or ethnic group. In 2021, less than half of young people under the age of five identified as white, compared to 76.8% among people aged 75 and over. In 2010, the respective white shares were 50.9% and 82.2%. At all ages, the white share of the population in 2021 is smaller than the share in 2010. But the changes are greatest when we compare those born in the 1970s (45 to 49 years in 2021) with those born about ten years were born earlier (45 years old). to 49 in 2010) – reflecting the emergence of more diverse baby boomers in the early years of expanded immigration to the United States and the contributions of subsequent waves of immigration.

These patterns are also reflected in the share of the population identifying as Latino or Hispanic in each age group in 2010 and 2021. While in both years, youth in the younger age groups are more likely to identify as Latino or Hispanic, the largest differences in age identification are occurs in people aged 45 and 60 in 2021 and in people of the same age in 2010. The increase in Latino or Hispanic in that generation is due to both more births and immigration, which increases the country's diversity among older age groups and young people influences.

The white losses are greatest in large urban areas, large cities and outside the South

The increase in national white population losses during the first year of the pandemic raises the question of how this may have affected overall geographic population shifts in the United States. One of the effects is the unusualrejectin the total population of the country's main urban areas (the 56 urban areas with more than 1 million inhabitants).

In the early 2010s, urban areas experienced high growth, which slowed by mid-decade as the population spread to smaller areas. The loss of total population in the period 2020-2021 can be attributed to the pandemic fear of living in very dense areas, but also to opportunities elsewhere.

The new Census Bureau estimate shows that the white population has made a major contribution to this loss. As Figure 7 shows, the white population in these areas fell by more than 900,000, well above the nearly 300,000 decline in the total population (with the gains of other racial-ethnic groups offsetting the difference). As Figure 8 shows, these other groups, particularly the Latino or Hispanic, Asian American, and Black populations, recorded declines in growth in these areas. But the biggest changes occurred as a result of the loss of the white population.

Of the nation's 56 major metropolitan areas, 43 saw an absolute decline in white population. Sixteen saw an absolute decline in their black population, and six saw a decline in their Latino or Hispanic and Asian American population(Download table D). The New York metro area suffered the largest white losses in 2020-2021 (222,000), followed by Los Angeles (103,000), Chicago (82,000), San Francisco (80,000), and Boston, Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia (all more than 30,000). (Download Table E.)Most metro areas that lost or gained white residents suffered larger losses or smaller gains in 2020-21 than in the previous year. This is the case for the metro areas with the most white residents: Phoenix and Austin, Texas, both of which continued to gain white residents in the years before the pandemic.

Just as major metropolitan areas lost their population in 2020-2021, so did these areasurban core provinces. Using a typology developed by Brookings Metro, Figure 9 shows that the white population also contributed the most to these losses.³Of the 142 counties (both urban and suburban) with more than 1 million residents, 120 recorded white losses in 2020-2021, with the majority showing larger losses than in the previous year. (Download Table E.)

The national white population loss in 2020-2021 has also impacted population changes in the 50 states and Washington, D.C. (Download table F). During this year, 18 states lost a recent record number of residents, and 33 states showed losses in their white populations, led by California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Ohio. Florida gained the highest number of white residents, making the South the only region to gain white residents. Other Southern states that gained white residents include South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina and Texas. States with the most white residents in the West include Idaho, Utah, Arizona and Nevada.

White losses during the pandemic year: a blip or a new trend?

The above observations make it clear that the peak year of the pandemic, 2020 to 2021, led to historically low levels of growth in the United States and in major metropolitan areas, cities, and states. The decline in the white population contributed most to these shifts, with record population losses recorded across the country, as well as in major metropolitan areas, major cities, and regions outside the South.

However, this was not the first year that people of color were responsible for the entire growth of America's population and much of its geography. Nastystarted in 2016, due to more deaths, fewer births and lower immigration. These demographic components affected all racial-ethnic groups, but pandemic forces made the nation's white losses even more apparent (except for the baby boomer-infused senior population, which nonetheless showed a slowdown in growth). It also appears that white urban residents, more than their counterparts in other racial groups, were more able or willing to leave urban areas during the pandemic.

Undoubtedly, the country's population growth will take off after the pandemic. But for the white population, these shifts will only limit current losses as the population ages. Fortunately for the country's future, the overall population is younger and a diversity of communities is contributing to its growth. They include people who identify with the rapidly growing “two or more race” population, including those with at least one white parent. From a purely demographic perspective, a return to fewer deaths, more births and, most importantly, more immigrants should keep the country on a solid path as growth increases among its increasingly diverse population.