Population projections in the United States: 2005-2050 (2024)

Jeffrey S. Passel In D'Vera Cohn

Managementsamenvatting

If current trends continue, the population of the United States will increase from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million in 2050, new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.

Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period as a result of the impact of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million their U.S.-born children or grandchildren.

Among the other major population projections:

• Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be immigrants by 2050, compared to one in eight (12%) in 2005. By 2025, the share of immigrant or foreign-born population will surpass the peak during the last major wave . of immigration a century ago.
• Immigration's key role in national growth builds on the pattern of recent decades in which immigrants and their American-born children and grandchildren have been responsible for most of the population growth. The importance of immigration increased as the average number of births to American-born women fell sharply before leveling off.
• The Latino population, already the nation's largest minority group, will triple in size and account for most of the nation's population growth between 2005 and 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population by 2050, compared to 14% in 2005.
• US births will play an increasingly important role in the population growth of Latin America and Asia; As a result, by 2050 a smaller share of both groups will be foreign-born than is currently the case.
• The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; Whites will be a minority (47%) by 2050.
• The country's older population will more than double between 2005 and 2050 as the baby boomer generation enters their traditional retirement years. The number of working-age Americans and children will grow more slowly than the older population and will shrink as a percentage of the total population.

The center's projections are based on detailed assumptions about births, deaths and immigration levels – the three main components of population change. All these assumptions are based on recent trends. But it's important to note that these trends can change. All population projections have inherent uncertainties, especially several years into the future, because they can be affected by changes in behavior, by new immigration policies, or by other events. Nevertheless, projections provide a starting point for understanding and analyzing the parameters of future demographic changes.

The center's report includes an analysis of the country's future "dependency ratio": the number of children and elderly people compared to the number of working-age Americans. There were 59 children and elderly people per 100 working age adults in 2005. This will increase to 72 dependents per 100 working age adults in 2050.

The report also offers two alternative population projections, one based on lower immigration assumptions and one based on higher immigration assumptions.

Readfull reportfor more details.

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