Historically, July was a mixed bag of bullish and bearish movements for seasonal viewers.But in the last ten years it was a consistent negative month for a sector.
It is the first week of July, so it's time to check in at seasonal activa with the most traded Futures products.In the consideration of differences in monetary and tax regimes of longer time horizons compared to the current time, our assessment includes the last five years and 10 years.
There is good news and bad news for seasonal viewers in July.On the positive side, data trends are normalized for the S&P 500 (/ES) and Nasdaq 100 (/NQ).The bad news, however, is that the rest of the rest of Futures products that are dealt with in this report still see their five-year average notions all embezzlement due to their respective standard deviation of returns (a function of the window in February to July 2020 with volatile environmentof the COVID-19 Pandemie. This period of unreliability ends when we go to the second half of 2023.
In recent months we have tackled the popular reversal of the sentence, "selling in May and road" and concluded that it was a nice rhyme, but nothing more.In the least for stock traders, the correct sentence is "bought until July to July to July", since the three Central three months of the year have yielded the strongest return for shares in a three-month window in the past five years and 10 years.
Monthly Futures Seasonal Summary - July 2023
Monthly seasonal provision in S&P 500 (/ES)
July is a very bullish month for /as a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the best month of the year of the index, on average a profit of +4.37% (σ = 3.08%).In the past 10 years this was the second best month of the year on average a profit of +3.33%.
Monthly seasonal provision in Nasdaq 100 (/NQ)
July is a very bullish month for /NQ on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the best month of the year of the index, on average a profit of +5.58% (σ = 4.45%).10 years it was the best month of the year, on average a profit of +5.06%.
Monthly seasonal provision in Treasury Notes (/Zn)
July is a bearish month for /zn on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the worst month of the year for the banknotes, on average a loss of -86% (σ = 10.28%).In the last 10 years it was the worst month of the year, on average a loss of -4.84%.
Monthly seasonal provision in Treasury Bonds (/ZB)
July is a bearish month for /ZB on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the worst month of the year of bonds, on average a loss of -5.46% (σ = 7.34%).In the last 10 years it was the worst month of the year, on average a loss of -3.38%.
Monthly seasonal provision in crude oil (/CL)
July is a bearish month for /CL on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the fourth worst month of the year of the energy product, on average a loss of -2.13% (σ = 4.55%).In the past 10 years it has been the third worst month of the year, on average a loss of -3.44%.
Monthly seasonal provision in gold (/GC)
July is a bullish month for /GC on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the third best month of the year of precious metal, on average a profit of +1.46% (σ = 4.71%).In the past 10 years it was the fourth best month of the year, on average a profit of +0.90%.
Monthly seasonal provision in Euro (/6th)
July is a mixed month for /6th on a seasonal basis.In the past five years it was the fifth best month of the year for the couple, on average a loss of -0.03% (σ = 3.00%).In the race of the past 10 years it was the third best month of the year, on average a profit of +0.27%.Note: The time series for Euro -Futures does not last after 2018;The data series is filled with the EUR/USD spot prices such as a proxy.
Christopher Vecchio, CFA,Tastylive's Head of Futures and Forex Shopping for almost 20 years.He has consulted with multinational companies about FX-Help and Lecture to Duke Law School at FX-Derivates.cchio is looking for opportunities with a high account about the intersection of macro economics and worldwide politics.He is organizedFutures Power HourMonday-free day andLet me explainUp yoursdag a co-beeAfter a while,Monday DAY.@CVECCHIOFX
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