Auto's
2025Over the next decade, the automotive industry will undergo a profound transformation: the cars it builds, the companies that build them and the consumers who buy them will look markedly different. Technology will lead this change, but it will be shaped by four key themes. The car in 2025 will be:
-
Vegetables
Consumers and lawmakers concerned about climate change are putting pressure on automakers to reduce carbon emissions.
Source: Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
% of global greenhouse gases
from the transport sectorExpected increase in CO2 emissions
from 1999 to 2035Source: Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
-
Practical
Traffic in the world's growing cities is getting worse. Ownership costs are rising while cars sit idle 95% of the time. This creates opportunities for companies to match cars more effectively with the people who need them.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan.
Rise in the world
urban population from 2010 to 2025Average time spent in traffic jams
every year by Japanese citizensSource: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
-
Safe
Reducing accidents has long been an industry priority, but the aging world population is increasing the need for safe transportation.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan.
of the world
older population
end 65 in 2025people killed
people injured
In traffic accidents worldwide
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan.
-
Affordable
As world income per population increases, car ownership will increase in developing countries. These new consumers will look for models that are small and cheap.
Kilde: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Projected car sales volume in 2025
Depth
If
global
(Expected car sales volume in 2025)
Kilde: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
ofseven keytrends
The coming transformation will drive seven key trends that will dominate the next decade.
The car from 2025 will not look like the cars of today. These are the trends that are changing the way we drive.
trend andfilling, connection
Concerns about greenhouse gases and pollution are driving an industry-wide change in the way cars are driven. Regulations regarding fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are forcing car manufacturers to make engines more efficient. In 2025, 25% of cars sold will have an electric motor, compared to 5% now. But most of these will be hybrids, and 95% of cars will still rely on fossil fuels for at least some of their power. This means that car manufacturers will have to make combustion engines more efficient to meet the new standards.
The development of alternative energy sources such as fuel cells will increase overall efficiency, but only if people can afford them. The Japanese government has set a target price of 2.2 million yen (about $18,000) for fuel cell vehicles by 2025. While they would still represent a small niche in global sales, this target price would allow them to become competitive with popular hybrids .
Comparison of energy systems
- petrol/gas tank motor transmission
Internal combustion
A combination of technologies throughout the powertrain can increase fuel economy in cars with combustion engines. These include gasoline direct injection, turbocharging and high-speed automatic transmission.
- electric storage generator electric motor petrol/gas tank motor transmission
hybrids
Hybrid cars rely on a combination of gasoline or diesel engines and electrical energy to increase fuel economy. They use regenerative braking and the vehicle's engine to charge their electric batteries.
- electric storage electric motor petrol/gas tank motor transmission connector for external charging
plug-in hybride
Plug-in hybrids have a greater all-electric range than traditional hybrids because they can charge their batteries from an external energy source. Like hybrids, they retain internal combustion engines.
- electric storage electric motor connector for external charging
Electric vehicles
Vehicles that rely solely on electric energy for propulsion have simpler powertrains than hybrids or traditional cars. Electric car manufacturers are focusing on reducing the cost of their batteries, which can now account for 50% of the purchase price.
- electric motor hydrogen tank fuel cell
Fuel cell vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles produce their electrical energy from fuel cells that use hydrogen. They produce no emissions other than water while driving.
- intern
combustion - hybrids
- plug in
hybrids - electric
vehicles - fuel cell
vehicles
tend toclarifies
To increase efficiency, automakers have tried to reduce the overall weight of cars. But stricter car safety standards typically required the use of heavier body parts.
That conflict is beginning to subside as companies explore materials that are both light and strong, including aluminum, high-strength steel and carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP).
However, these are more expensive materials. CFRP in particular is now mainly used only in special sports cars. Over time, the drive for fuel efficiency will lead to increased use of aluminum and high-strength steel.
higher costs for materials with weight
The new materials are stronger and lighter, but much more expensive for car manufacturers.
normal steel
tung
$1 kg
high strength steel
tung
$2/kg
aluminium
medium
$3/kg
aluminium profile
lys
$6/kg
carbon fiber reinforced plastic
lys
$40/kg
Source: Company interview, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Source: Company interview, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
trend threeself-driving cars
Self-driving cars, once only found in science fiction, are becoming reality. They can help reduce traffic accidents, improve traffic and provide mobility to more people.
The competition to lead this change is intense and comes from companies both inside and outside the sector. Fully autonomous cars are being tested on the roads today, and the first commercially available semi-autonomous cars could appear on the road within one to two years.
But that innovation comes with risks. Transferring control to software can lead to new hacking vulnerabilities and other dangers – liability issues that companies cannot ignore. Cars that allow drivers to intervene in emergency situations are a more likely scenario in the near future.
Levels of autonomous driving
- Adaptive cruise control
- Center path
- Electronic ABS controller
- Automatic braking
- Fuel cell energy system
- Thermal imaging camera
- Send for emergency use
- Multi-range sensors
- Ultrasonic sensors
- Milligolf radar
- Variable seating
- Destination entry
- Fully autonomous control
- Electrical power system
- Milligolf radar
Security assistance
The driver can transfer one system to control the car.
Complex driving assistance
Two or more automated systems work together. The driver keeps an eye on the road and takes control if necessary.
Semi-autonomous driving
The car is fully automatic, but in an emergency the driver can take over the steering.
Fully autonomous driving
The car performs all safety-critical actions without human intervention.
- Level1
- Level2
- Level3
- Level4
Kilde: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
The technological changes that are transforming the car will also cause significant changes for the companies that make them.
trend firedevelop the supply chain
The need for more fuel-efficient cars will significantly increase the cost of parts – by more than $2,500 each. vehicle. The companies that supply these parts will have to find ways to keep up with technology while keeping costs down. Although challenging, this situation also offers opportunities for component manufacturers.
Reduce costsCo2 emissions
$ 274
$ 804
$ 1.809
$ 2.596
2012 2015 2020 2025
Weighted average cost increase per vehicle (US$)
Source: IHS, company interviews, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
For large companies, mitigating risk may mean increasing their R&D budgets and diversifying across a range of technologies. Smaller companies, on the other hand, can deepen their focus on core technologies while building alliances with other suppliers in areas outside their expertise.
trend femininenew competitors
With software and other technologies taking the lead, it's no surprise that consumer tech companies are entering the automotive world. While a car may not be a mobile phone, these companies' focus on design, ease of use, automated assistance and battery life will bring new forms of innovation to the field.
A catalyst for technology innovators to enter the automotive industry now, electric cars are only 1/3 the size of conventional vehicles, lowering the barriers to entry.
FEWER PARTS = EASIER PRODUCTION
Petrol
30.000
30.000
electric vehicle
11.000
11.000
Kilde: METI, firmainterview, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
The car of 2025 will also be shaped by the world around it. New groups of drivers and new ways of driving will create new opportunities for car manufacturers.
trend sexThe Internet of Cars
THE INTERNET OF THINGS DEMONSTRATES HOW CONNECTING EVERYDAY DEVICES TO A NETWORK CHANGES WHAT WE CAN DO THEM. THE INTERNET OF CARS WILL DO THE SAME.
Connected cars that communicate with each other and with the rest of the world will not only reduce the number of accidents and simplify traffic. They will have strong consequences beyond the auto industry. Insurance companies, for example, will have new ways to monitor driver behavior, reward good drivers and allocate costs to bad drivers. And ride-sharing companies can better connect idling cars with the customers who need them.
Want to share a car
Generation Z
Millennials
Generation X
Baby boomer
Want to share a car
Generation Z
Millennials
Generation X
Baby boomer
Global
Asiatic-Pacific
Middle East/Africa
Latin America
North America
Europa
The popularity of ride sharing varies by generation. More and more millennials are willing to share cars. Source: Nielsen.
Carpooling can be a mixed blessing for the auto industry. The majority of vehicles worldwide are only used for commuting or short trips during the day, meaning they are stationary 95% of the time. If drivers decide to part with their ownership and only use cars when they need them, car sales could suffer.
Connected cars – especially self-driving cars – could also change the way people spend their driving time. In a 2013 survey, more than 50% of respondents said they prefer to listen to music, talk on the phone, watch videos or surf the Internet while traveling by car.
trend seventhe shift to emerging markets
Car ownership in most economies starts to take off when annual per capita income increases are between $10,000 and $20,000.
By 2025, many developing countries will reach that level for the first time, creating strong demand for smaller cars with lower prices and lower running costs.
For example, India will become the world's third largest auto market by 2025 with 7.4 million vehicles. China, which has already seen tremendous growth in car ownership, will continue to grow and car sharing is expected to become increasingly popular.
EMERGING MARKETS DOMINATE FUTURE GROWTH
Because incomes per As the population increases, new markets will account for an increasing share of the world's new car purchases.
developed countries
new markets
14M
35M
1995
16M
40M
2000
24M
39M
2005
42M
31M
2010
52M
37M
2015E
68M
34M
2020E
78M
34M
2025E
Millions of cars sold.
Kilde: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Kilde: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
The global automotive industry is on the eve of a major transformation. Technology is driving this shift, which is shaped by demographic, regulatory and environmental pressures. In 2025, the car and the world around it will look completely different:
ofwas
The car will become smarter and more efficient with highly efficient engines, lighter materials and autonomous drive systems.
ofindustry
The industry will evolve with new competition from technology companies and suppliers that can produce high-tech parts at low prices.
ofmanager
The driver will look at cars in a different way: he shares cars and uses them as a space to consume media and make phone calls. A growing percentage of these factors will come from emerging markets.
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