ANALYSIS OF 125 MANUFACTURERS OF TRACTION MOTORS 93,212 ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THEIR ENGINES … · 06-17-2013 · Electric motors for electric vehicles 2013-2023: forecasts, technologies, - [PDF document] (2024)

Electric motors for electric vehicles 2013-2023: predictions, technologies, players

Table of contents

1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1

1.1. Traction motor predictions for numbers 1

1.2. Global Value Market for Vehicle Traction Motors 6

1.3. Definition and background 9

1.4. The shape of the engines 9

1.5. Location of engines 9

1.6. Unique major new research 10

1.7. Blunt engine talk at EV Japan January 2012 28

1.8. Have reluctance motors replaced disruptive traction motor technology? 28

1.9. Three ways traction motor manufacturers are racing to escape rare earths 34

1.9.1. Synchronous motors without magnets – coupled reluctance 34

1.9.2. Synchronous motors with new magnets 34

1.9.3. Asynchronous motors 35

1.9.4. More on the way 36

1.10. Integration of engine and other components 36

1.11. Industry consolidation 37

1.12. Collaboration between the sectors 2013 37

1.12.1. Visedo: Axco Motors: Semikron: WIMA: Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences:

Power Conversion B.V. 37

1.12.2. Yasa Motors: Sevcon: Westfield Sportcars: Potenza Technologie 39

2. INTRODUCTION 41

2.1. History of electric traction motors 41

2.2. Preferred engine types in electric vehicles 46

2.2.1. Types of traction motors in overview 46

2.2.2. Asynchronous traction motors 47

2.2.3. Size and number of engines 48

2.2.4. The shapes of the engine 49

2.2.5. Synchronous PM traction motors 50

2.2.6. Using magnet costs 51

2.2.7. Main choice of EV engines in the future 53

2.2.8. Axialflux versus radialfluxmotorer 57

2.3. Advanced engines that bridge performance gaps 58

2.3.1. Advanced asynchronous motor variant – Chorus Motors 58

2.3.2. Advanced PM Synchronous Motor – Protean Electric 61

2.3.3. Engine position 62

2.3.4. The relative advantages of the motor positions on electric bicycles and e-bikes 63

2.3.5. Fraunhofer IFAM 67

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2.4. Remaining challenges 68

2.4.1. Hybrids on choose 68

2.4.2. Electrical Corner Modules (ECMs) 69

2.4.3. Many engines in and near the wheels: very few production gains70

2.4.4. SIM drive in wheel drive 73

2.4.5. In aircraft wheel motors 74

2.4.6. Go to high voltage 75

2.4.7. Environmental challenges 75

2.4.8. Many possibilities and many needs 79

2.4.9. Lack of standards 81

2.5. Electric outboard motors 82

2.5.1. Regen Nautic Inc VS 90

3. ANALYSIS OF 125 TRACTION MOTOR MANUFACTURERS 93

3.1. Collaboration 137

3.1.1. Visedo: Axco Motors: Semikron: WIMA: Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences:

Power Conversion B.V. 137

4. 212 ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND THEIR ENGINES 139

5. INTERVIEWS AND NEWLY REPORTED ADVICE ON MOTOR TENDENCY 203

5.1. Asynchronous vs. synchronous 203

5.2. Axial versus radial flow 206

5.3. Who will succeed with electric microcars 207

5.4. Expansion of the market 207

6. MARKET FORECASTS 211

6.1. Traction motor predictions for numbers 211

6.2. Global Value Market for Vehicle Traction Motors 215

6.3. Definition and background 218

6.4. The shape of the engines 219

6.5. Location of engines 219

6.6. Unique large new study 219

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY 241

Electric motors for electric vehicles 2013-2023: predictions, technologies, players

Tables Page

Table 1.1 Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in thousands 2

Table 1.2 Vehicle numbers (in thousands) 2012-2023 3

Table 1.3 Number of traction motors in multi-engine vehicles 2012-2023 (millions) and percent.

all vehicle traction motors round 3

Table 1.4 Share of electric cars with more than one engine 2012-2023 4

Table 1.5 Number of electric cars with more than one electric motor 2012-2023 in thousands and

percentage of all electric cars rounded to 4

Table 1.6 Average number of engines per multi-engine vehicle 2012-2023 5

Table 1.7 Share of electric cars with one engine 2012-2023 5

Table 1.8 Number of electric cars with one electric motor, i.e. number of motors in one engine

vehicles in thousands 6

Table 1.9 Price of traction motor(s) to vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle 6

Table 1.10 Market value of car $ million paid by the car manufacturer 2012-2023 7

Table 1.11 Overview of preferences for traction motor technology for vehicles 11

Table 1.12 Benefits vs. disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today

vehicles 13

Table 1.13 Most Likely Winners and Losers in the Next Decade 13

Table 1.14 Supplier numbers arranged by continent 14

Table 1.15 Number of traction motor suppliers listed by country in alphabetical order 15

Table 1.16 Applications targeted by our sample of engine suppliers versus market segmentation, listed in order

Market size 2012 16

Table 1.17 Suppliers of vehicle traction motors – divided into the number of asynchronous,

synchronous and both, where identified 18

Table 1.18 Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, where

identified 19

Table 1.19 Distribution of vehicle sample by application sector 19

Table 1.20 Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options per category in number and

percentage of the category, shown in descending order from asynchronous percentage 20

Table 1.21 212 electric car models analyzed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque

their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most common.

The rated power and traction data are enhanced by figures from our research on the 117

manufacturers of traction vehicles 21

Table 1.22 Share of old and abandoned models in the study that use asynchronous or

Synchronous motors 22

Table 1.23 Number of vehicles examined reporting the use of brushed synchronous motors,

per vehicle type 22

Table 1.24 Other engine properties specified by vehicle manufacturers 24

Table 1.25 Number of selected cars with one, two, three or four electric traction motors 24

Table 1.26 Ex-factory unit price of electric vehicles, in thousands of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, as of

application sector, round 26

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Table 1.27 Ex-factory value of electric vehicles, in billions of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by application

sector, lap 27

Table 2.1 History of electric traction motors and related technologies 2000 41

Table 2.2 The most important choices in traction motor technology for electric vehicles in the coming decade. 53

Table 2.3 A comparison of potential and actual technologies for electric traction motors 55

Table 2.4 Comparison of engines with outer rotor and inner rotor 57

Table 2.5 Relative advantages of the motor positions on e-bikes and e-bikes 63

Table 2.6 Excerpts from some Azure Dynamics Traction Engine specifications 82

Table 2.7 Extracts from some specifications of ABB traction motors in British units 82

Table 3.1 125 manufacturers of vehicle traction motors by name, country, asynchronous/synchronous,

targeted vehicle types, requirements and images 93

Table 3.2 Supplier numbers arranged by continent 135

Table 3.3 Supplier numbers arranged by country 135

Table 3.4 Targeted applications vs. market distribution. 136

Table 3.5 Suppliers of traction motors for vehicles – divided into the number of asynchronous,

synchronous and both true identified 136

Table 3.6 Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, where

identified 136

Table 3.7 Examples of suppliers of train traction motors 137

Table 4.1 212 electric car manufacturers, vehicle examples, asynchronous or synchronous motor

used, engine information where specified, engine manufacturer and number of engines per vehicle. 140

Table 4.2 Market value distributed over the next ten years across various vehicle categories 195

Table 4.3 Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options per category in number and

percentage per category, shown in descending order of asynchronous percentage. 196

Table 4.4 212 electric car models analyzed according to category 197

Table 4.5 Share of old and abandoned models in the study that use asynchronous or

synchronous motors 198

Table 4.6 Number of vehicles examined reporting the use of DC synchronous motors, subdivided by type

vehicle 198

Table 4.7 Other engine properties specified by car manufacturers. 199

Table 4.8 Number of selected cars with one, two, three or four electric traction motors 199

Table 4.9 Summary of preferences for traction motor technology for vehicles. 200

Table 4.10 Most frequently mentioned engine suppliers 201

Table 6.1 Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in thousands 212

Table 6.2 Vehicle numbers (in thousands) 2012-2023 213

Table 6.3 Number of traction motors in multi-engine vehicles 2012-2023 and percentage of all vehicles

traction motors rounded out 213

Table 6.4 Share of electric cars with more than one engine 2012-2023 214

Table 6.5 Number of electric cars with more than one electric motor 2012-2023 in thousands and

the percentage of all electric cars rounded to 214

Table 6.6 Average number of engines per multi-engine vehicle 2012-2023 214

Table 6.7 Share of electric cars with one engine 2012-2023 215

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Table 6.8 Number of electric cars with one electric motor, i.e. number of motors in one engine

vehicles in thousands 215

Table 6.9 Price of traction motor(s) to the vehicle manufacturer in $K per vehicle 216

Table 6.10 Market value of car $ million paid by the car manufacturer 2012-2023 216

Table 6.11 Summary of preferences in the field of traction motor technology for vehicles 220

Table 6.12 Benefits vs. disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today

vehicles 222

Table 6.13 Most Likely Winners and Losers in the Next Decade 223

Table 6.14 Supplier numbers arranged by continent 223

Table 6.15 Supplier numbers of traction motors arranged by country in alphabetical order 224

Table 6.16 Applications targeted by our sample of engine suppliers versus market segmentation, listed in order

Market size 2012 226

Table 6.17 Suppliers of vehicle traction motors – divided into the number of asynchronous,

synchronous and both true identified 228

Table 6.18 Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, where

identified 229

Table 6.19 Distribution of vehicle sample by application sector 229

Table 6.20 Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options per category in number and

percentage of the category, shown in descending order from asynchronous percentage 230

Table 6.21 212 electric car models analyzed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque

their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most common.

The rated power and traction data are enhanced by figures from our research on the 117

traction car manufacturers. 231

Table 6.22 Share of old and abandoned models in the study that use asynchronous or

synchronous motors 232

Table 6.23 Number of vehicles examined reporting the use of brushed synchronous motors,

per vehicle type 232

Table 6.24 Other engine properties declared by vehicle manufacturers 234

Table 6.25 Number of selected cars with one, two, three or four electric traction motors 234

Table 6.26 Ex-factory unit price of electric vehicles, in thousands of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, as of

application sector, round 236

Table 6.27 Ex-factory value of electric vehicles, in billions of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by application

sector, lap 237

Electric motors for electric vehicles 2013-2023: predictions, technologies, players

Figures Page Fig. 1.1 Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in thousands 2

Fig. 1.2 Market value of car $ million paid by the car manufacturer 2012-2023 7

Fig. 1.3 Position of engines sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are installed, in millions of engines and

percentage of all engines with all numbers rounded to 10

Fig. 1.4 Supplier numbers arranged by continent 14

Fig. 1.5 Number of traction motor suppliers by country 15

Fig. 1.6 Targeted applications at the top versus market value distribution in mid-2012 and bottom 17 of 2022

Fig. 1.7 Suppliers of vehicle traction motors – divided by number that supply asynchronous,

synchronous and both, where identified 18

Fig. 1.8 Number of vehicles examined reporting the use of brushed synchronous motors, per

vehicle type 23

Fig. 1.9 Number of withdrawn cars with one, two, three or four electric traction motors 25

Fig. 1.10 Factory price per unit for electric cars, in thousands of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by

application sector, round 26

Fig. 1.11 Ex-factory value of electric vehicles, in billions of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by application sector,

ronde 27

Fig. 1.12 Poster displays related to coupled reluctance traction motors 32

Fig. 2.1 Cri Cri engines 48

Fig. 2.2 Multiple electric motors on NASA's solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle to the summit

atmosphere 49

Fig. 2.3 Bicycle hub motor rotor left and stator right 57

Fig. 2.4 Axial flux in wheel motor driving a bicycle and a propeller 58

Afb. 2.5 60/15 kW Chorus Meshcon-motor 59

Fig. 2.6 Protean wheel motor for road vehicles 62

Fig. 2.7 Innovative electric bicycle motor 62

Fig. 2.8 A motorcycle with an off-center engine near hub 63

Fig. 2.9 Mitsubishi in-wheel application 64

Fig. 2.10 Construction of a wheel motor 65

Afb. 2.11 Mitsubishi wielmotor 65

Aff. 2.12 Lohner-Porsche Elbil uit 1898 66

Fig. 2.13 Volvo ReCharge concept hybrid 67

Fig. 2.14 Fraunhofer wheel motor on an Artega GT 67

Fig. 2.15 Mine-resistant ambush protected - all-terrain vehicle MATV 69

Fig. 2.16 MATV structure 69

Fig. 2.17 Elaphe synchronous traction motors with axial flux permanent magnet and exceptionally high power

weight and torque-to-weight ratio 72

Fig. 2.18 SIM Drive traction in the wheel 73

Afb. 2.19 EMRAX 222 duplexmotor 74

Electric motors for electric vehicles 2013-2023: predictions, technologies, players

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Fig. 2.20 Nominal energy storage traction battery versus battery voltage for mild hybrids in red,

plug-in hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green 75

Fig. 2.21 Bow thruster for Deepflight personal submarine 76

Fig. 2.22 Propulsion systems for a swimmer AUV 76

Fig. 2.23 New intermotor brushless permanent magnet marine traction motor 77

Fig. 2.24 Brothers Willisits Pure electric outboard motor 78

Fig. 2.25 EMotor 75kW pure electric outboard motor with synchronous permanent magnet motor,

asynchronous optional. The visible engine can be seen on the left. 79

Afb. 2.26 CERV 80

Fig. 2.27 CERV-motorintegratie 81

Fig. 2.28 Electric outboard motors for trolling 83

Fig. 2.29 Torqeedo advanced design of small electric outboard motor 84

Fig. 2.30 aquawatt electric outboard motor 85

Fig. 2.31 Aquawatt electric outboard motor in action 86

Fig. 2.32 The 180 hp outboard motor developed for the Campion Marine of Canada 87

Fig. 2.33 Unit sales and value of outboard motors in the EU, US and rest of the world

world and trade flows 89

Fig. 2.34 ReGen Nautic hybrid powertrain 90

Fig. 5.1 Barefoot motorcycle ATV motorcycle in place 208

Fig. 6.1 Number of traction motors in electric vehicles worldwide 2012-2023 in thousands 212

Fig. 6.2 Market value of car $ million paid by the car manufacturer 2012-2023 217

Fig. 6.3 Position of engines sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are installed, in millions of engines and

percentage of all engines with rounded figures. The red numbers refer to expensive engines and

numbers in green refer to cheap engines 219

Fig. 6.4 Supplier numbers arranged by continent 224

Fig. 6.5 Supplier numbers of traction motors arranged by country 225

Fig. 6.6 Targeted applications at the top versus distribution of market value in 2012 in the middle and 2022 in the bottom 227

Fig. 6.7 Suppliers of vehicle traction motors – divided by number that supply asynchronous,

synchronous and both true identified 228

Fig. 6.8 Number of vehicles surveyed reporting the use of brushed DC synchronous motors, per

vehicle type 233

Fig. 6.9 Number of withdrawn cars with one, two, three or four electric traction motors 235

Fig. 6.10 Ab factory unit price of electric vehicles, in thousands of US dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by

application sector, round 236

Fig. 6.11 Ex-factory value of electric vehicles, in billion dollars, sold worldwide, 2012-2023, by application sector,

ronde 237